Beginning in Q3 of 2021, the global semiconductor shortage situation has gradually shifted from the full line of tension to the stage of structural relief. The supply of some general-purpose chip products such as small-capacity NOR memory, CIS, DDI and other consumer electronics has increased, and the inventory level has increased. The prices of some products have opened a downward channel, and agents have switched from hoarding to selling. From the perspective of production capacity, advanced technology and production capacity that partially rely on 8-inch special technology are still queuing up, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises that are still scheduled for full production and price increases.
However, from the current point of view, there is a high probability that the tight global semiconductor production capacity in 2022 will be fully relieved, and even some of the more versatile products will have a surplus risk, and some chip products will continue to accumulate inventory due to the problem of “long and short materials”. , In the second half of 2022, it will enter the price-cutting channel ahead of schedule, and the price will pull back by more than 10%-15%. However, shortage and surplus are a dynamic adjustment process. The capacity situation in 2022 will still face the following variables: First, the evolution direction of the new crown epidemic, especially whether the mutant strain “Omi Keron” will make the global supply chain system fall into again Stagnation and insufficient supply.
Second, certain external disturbances may affect the expansion schedule of certain manufacturers, such as major disasters, power cuts, or subject to the progress of the U.S. export license for key equipment, which further affects the distribution of global capacity supply and demand.
Third, despite the decline in global demand, under the background of new economic policies such as Metaverse and Dual Carbon, will there be a sustainable, phenomenal, and massive market like smartphones, driving the global semiconductor industry into a cycle of strong demand again? . The fourth is the influence of geopolitics and technological nationalism, and the global supply chain system has once again entered a state of deep uncertainty, which has intensified the inventory increase demand of major global chip application manufacturers.
Although the semiconductor industry in 2022 may still be trapped by capacity issues, it is more stable than the roller coaster market in 2021. In addition, with the increasing attention of the entire industry, the number and quality of players have increased, leading to the development of the entire industry into a tough period and deep waters. How to go from pursuing scale and comparative advantages to pursuing quality and differentiated innovation capabilities may be a lot of domestic Questions that semiconductor companies need to think about in 2022.
Post time: Dec-10-2021